瑞典克朗/波兰兹罗提 (SEKPLN) 加自选

新西兰服务业恢复增长，6月份PSI达到50.6。6月份回升至50.0的盈亏平衡线以上，这是新西兰服务业在经历了长期疲软后正在企稳的第一个切实迹象，再加上制造业指数的飙升，这加强了整体GDP增长回升至2.0%左右的理由。改善的幅度很小，只有新订单和交付量明显扩大，而就业率滞后于48.8，这表明复苏是脆弱的，容易受到家庭支出再次疲软的影响。

NZ services sector returns to growth as PSI hits 50.6 in June.June's move back above the 50.0 breakeven line offers the first tangible sign that New Zealand's services sector, which makes up the bulk of the economy, is stabilising after a prolonged soft patch, and combined with the reported surge in the manufacturing index it strengthens the case for a pickup in headline GDP growth toward around 2.0%. The narrow breadth of the improvement, with only New Orders and Deliveries clearly in expansion while Employment lags at 48.8, suggests the recovery is fragile and vulnerable to any renewed weakening in household spending.

新西兰商业新西兰PSI从6月份的47.5升至50.6。新西兰商业新西兰PSI从6月份的47.5升至50.6

New Zealand Business NZ PSI rose from previous 47.5 to 50.6 in June.New Zealand Business NZ PSI rose from previous 47.5 to 50.6 in June

即将上任的英国首相伯纳姆着眼于扩大秋季预算，可能会将财政报表与支出审查合并——报告。一份涵盖税收措施和部门预算的秋季合并财政报表将代表英国财政信号的重大转变，可能会给金边债券市场和英镑交易员带来一个单一的、更高风险的事件来定价，而不是在一年中进行两次单独的操作。将土地税提案、公用事业国有化计划和更坚定的占GDP 3.5%的国防支出承诺捆绑在一个公告中，将使投资者在下一次选举之前更关注伯纳姆的财政方向，但压缩的三个月部门和解谈判窗口增加了政策下滑或谈判遇到困难时市场不安的风险。

Incoming UK PM Burnham eyes expansive autumn budget, may merge fiscal statement with spending review - reports.A combined autumn fiscal statement covering both tax measures and departmental budgets would represent a significant shift in UK fiscal signalling, potentially giving gilt markets and sterling traders a single, higher-stakes event to price rather than two separate exercises spread across the year. Bundling a land tax proposal, utilities nationalisation plans and a firmer 3.5% of GDP defence spending commitment into one announcement would sharpen investor focus on Burnham's fiscal direction well ahead of the next election, but the compressed three-month negotiating window for departmental settlements raises the risk of policy slippage or market unease if talks run into difficulty.

Weeknd ICYMI：美国袭击伊朗目标后，伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡，扩大海湾打击。伊朗将袭击范围扩大到卡塔尔和阿联酋，这两个国家数月来一直避免袭击，这标志着实质性升级，交易员将把其解读为新的供应风险溢价事件，而不是可控的爆发。随着德黑兰再次宣布霍尔木兹海峡关闭，并警告船只不要未经授权过境，预计基准原油和运费以及战争风险保险费率将再次面临上行压力，尽管美国坚称交通仍在通过南部路线。

Weeknd ICYMI: Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, expands Gulf strikes after US hits Iranian targets.The widening of Iranian strikes to Qatar and the UAE, states that had avoided attack for months, signals a material escalation that traders will read as a fresh supply-risk premium event rather than a contained flare-up. With Tehran again declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed and warning vessels against unauthorised transit, expect renewed upward pressure on benchmark crude and freight and war-risk insurance rates, even as the US insists traffic is still flowing via a southern route.