国际周刊：第四季度GDP为负增长奠定了基础加拿大央行 重新开始切割。我们预计，在经历了异常强劲的第三季度后，2025年第四季度的国内生产总值将低于普遍预期，环比收缩0.8%。季度增长一直不稳定，反映了贸易和库存的大幅波动，第四季度可能会出现逆转。

International Week Ahead: Negative Q4 GDP Sets the Stage for a BoC Cutting Restart.We expect Q4-2025 GDP to undershoot consensus, contracting by 0.8% quarter-over-quarter (SAAR) following an exceptionally strong Q3. Quarterly growth has been volatile, reflecting large swings in trade and inventories, and Q4 is likely to mark a reversal.

每周经济与金融评论：拓宽增长动力——解读GDP并展望未来。我们对第四季度GDP的预测远低于普遍预期，今天上午的官方发布证实了我们的怀疑，即政府关门和不包括黄金的贸易平衡阻碍了这一时期更广泛的增长。GDP的年化增长率仅为1.4%，大约是普遍预期的2.8%增长率的一半。

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Broadening Drivers of Growth – Unpacking GDP and Looking Ahead.We had maintained a well-below consensus forecast for fourth quarter GDP and the official release this morning confirmed our suspicions that a government shutdown and a gold-excluded trade balance held back broader growth during the period. The annualized rate of GDP came in at just 1.4%, roughly half the 2.8% growth rate expected by the consensus.

保留CUSMA豁免：加拿大在美国IEEPA裁决中的真正优先事项。美国最高法院对美国政府根据《国际紧急经济权力法案》（IEEPA）征收的广泛关税的裁决，剥夺了政府今后征收关税的权力。尽管如此，其他立法机构仍对政府恢复关税持开放态度。

Preserving CUSMA Exemptions: Canada's Real Priority amid U.S. IEEPA Ruling.The U.S. Supreme Court ruling against broad tariffs imposed by the U.S. administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) removes government authority to collect them going forward. Still, other legislative authorities are open for the administration to re-instate tariffs.

12月强劲增长可能导致加拿大第四季度GDP持平。美国政府对最高法院反对IEEPA关税的裁决的回应可能会掩盖未来一周的经济数据发布。我们之前已经注意到，政府有多种选择，可以通过其他立法重新实施这些措施。

Stronger Growth in December Likely Left Canadian GDP Flat in Q4.The U.S. administration's response to the Supreme Court's ruling against IEEPA tariffs could overshadow economic data releases in the week ahead. We have noted before that the government has multiple options to reimpose those measures using other legislation.